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Numerical Patent Analysis with the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method: Valuing a Compound Real Option

Mikael Collan, Robert Fullér, József Mezei, Xiaolu Wang, Numerical Patent Analysis with the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method: Valuing a Compound Real Option. In: Dabin Zhang, Lean Yu, Shouyang Wang (Eds.), The Fourth International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering, 407-411, IEEE Computer Society CPS, 2011.

Abstract:

Numerical analysis for supporting patent application
decisions is a difficult topic due to hardship in estimating
the patent future accurately and because patent valuation
is most often a problem with multiple stages that can be
understood as compound options. We present how numerical
analysis of a patent exhibiting two major stages can be done
by using cash-flow scenarios as input data and a two stage
valuation model based on the fuzzy pay-off method for real
option valuation to generate decision-support for deciding
whether to go ahead with a patent application or not. We
illustrate with a numerical example and discuss the use of the
results in decision support.

BibTeX entry:

@INPROCEEDINGS{inpCoFuMeWa11b,
  title = {Numerical Patent Analysis with the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method: Valuing a Compound Real Option},
  booktitle = {The Fourth International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering},
  author = {Collan, Mikael and Fullér, Robert and Mezei, József and Wang, Xiaolu},
  editor = {Zhang, Dabin and Yu, Lean and Wang, Shouyang},
  publisher = {IEEE Computer Society CPS},
  pages = {407-411},
  year = {2011},
  keywords = {patent valuation; real options; scenarios; fuzzy numbers},
}

Belongs to TUCS Research Unit(s): Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research (IAMSR)

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