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Setting the Upper Bound of Growth in Trend Extrapolations

Arho Suominen, Marko Seppänen, Setting the Upper Bound of Growth in Trend Extrapolations. In: Yasser Hosni (Ed.), Technology and the Global Challenges Security, Energy, Water, and the Environment - 20th International Conference for the International Association of Management of Technology, -, the International Association of Management of Technology, 2011.

Abstract:

This paper reports the findings of a study on the trend extrapolations of a case technology, white light emitting diodes. The study takes advantage of bibliometric data made available by different databases as a
measure of technological advancements. The case technology was modeled through its current technological life cycle by using databases, such as Science Citation Index, Compendex, US Patent and Trademark Organization
and News Services. The analysis shows that the trend extrapolations modeled the developments with a good statistical fit by explaining a significant portion of the variance in each of the sets of quantitative data.
Analyzing the practical aspect of the trend extrapolations made the study points out two factors affecting the practical analysis of the trend extrapolations made. First, the statistically fitted model lacked for ability to produce a practically plausible model fit, and second, the possibility to vary the upper bound of growth while
still having a statistically good model fit is extensive. Agreeing on a valid upper bound of growth is a significant factor affecting the validity of the model as with a variety of upper bound levels a valid model was produced. As future research, the results suggest further analysis on the context of trend extrapolations made from bibliometric data.

BibTeX entry:

@INPROCEEDINGS{inpSuSe11a,
  title = {Setting the Upper Bound of Growth in Trend Extrapolations},
  booktitle = {Technology and the Global Challenges Security, Energy, Water, and the Environment - 20th International Conference for the International Association of Management of Technology},
  author = {Suominen, Arho and Seppänen, Marko},
  editor = {Hosni, Yasser},
  publisher = {the International Association of Management of Technology},
  pages = {-},
  year = {2011},
}

Belongs to TUCS Research Unit(s): TUCS Productization Laboratory

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